RBA watching housing for now
RBA governor Glenn Stevens has told a major economic forum that interest rates will likely stay on hold for the time being, as inflation is under control and home prices are cooling.
“It seems likely that an accommodative stance will be appropriate for some time yet,” Mr Stevens said in a speech titled ‘The Path to Prosperity’ at the Economic and Social Outlook Conference in Melbourne.
“I think everyone knows that were a change to monetary policy to be required in the near term, it would almost certainly be an easing, not a tightening.
“The rate of CPI inflation is clearly no impediment to easing.
“The housing market, to the extent that's an issue, may be calming though by how much and how persistently we can't yet know.”
Mr Stevens also commented on the impact of major banks raising their mortgage interest rates.
The big banks are boosting rates in order to cover for new rules forcing them to hold higher cash reserves.
But the RBA governor says he does not think the independent rate rises by the banks would do much to the Australian economy, even though the recent rate increases were the equivalent of about half a 25 basis point rise in the official cash rate.
“My preliminary assessment is that the macroeconomic effect of these actions in themselves may not be large,” Mr Stevens said.
“It is one part of a much bigger and evolving landscape. Let me be clear that in making these comments I am not, repeat not, offering any endorsement of what the banks have done here.”
On other matters, Mr Stevens said Australia appeared to be coping well in the echoes of the mining boom.
“We are probably roughly halfway through the decline in resources sector capital spending now; the headwinds from that source are about as intense now as they are likely to get,” he said.
“We are still growing. It would be good if the growth was a bit stronger, but nonetheless over the past year the non-mining side of the economy has generated respectable growth in employment.
“The rebalancing is occurring.”
But he tempered his optimism with the warning that uncertain economic growth in China could present a big challenge for Australian mining firms, as it compounds the effect of reduced demand for once-major commodities.